Long-Term Transportation Bill Will Require $100 Billion in New Revenue or Fund Transfers

AASHTO Journal, 7 February 2014

According to new numbers released this week by the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office, a six-year surface transportation bill would require $100 billion in additional revenue—such as new taxes or transfers from the Treasury’s General Fund—just to maintain current spending levels.

In its latest Highway Trust Fund (HTF) projections, the CBO reports, “the highway and transit accounts of the Highway Trust Fund will have insufficient revenues to meet obligations starting in fiscal year 2015.” However, the CBO has also said that it is possible that the HTF will run out of funding before the expiration of current surface transportation bill, MAP-21, on Sept. 30. This is consistent with U.S. DOT Secretary Anthony Foxx’s announcement in January that the Highway Account of the HTF is likely to run out of money in August of this year.

CBO estimates that HTF revenue will be about $17 billion less than HTF spending per year over the next ten years (FY 2015-2024). This is partially due to the stagnation of HTF revenues, as CBO expects the HTF tax and interest receipts to not increase over the ten year budget window. The amount of revenue expected in 2015—$39 billion—is estimated to remain generally flat through 2024.

The CBO’s projection of the HTF through 2024 is available here.

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